In February 2012 when Apple (AAPL) was trading around $440 we published an article titled “Apple Is Still A Bargain, Likely Headed Past $500”. The $500 barrier was broken by the end of the month and the stock soared to $700 only to return to the $500 level over the next year and a half. Why? Growth projections for Apple in all categories by analysts (and this author) turned out to be too optimistic. An example can be taken from the above article:
A key question is whether the iPhone market is starting to mature, or whether there is continued growth ahead. We’ve put together a market projection based on a recent interview with Kulbinder Garcha of Credit Suisse and a Gartner market projection. We’ve combined these forecasts and interpolated data for the middle years (2012-2014).
Year (sales in thousands) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Smart phone Market 293000 462000 630000 800000 950000 1053000 iPhone Sales 47487 93102 138600 160000 178125 184275 iPhone Market Share 16.2% 20.2% 22.0% 20.0% 18.8% 17.5% iPhone growth NA 96.1% 48.9% 15.4% 11.3% 3.5%
Based on these reports, iPhone sales growth will continue to be robust through 2014 and will not dip into single-digit growth until 2015.
We calculated an average annual tablet growth rate of about 30% through 2015 based on Kulbinder Garcha’s interview. Given these projections, it will be a few more years before the iPhone and iPad markets mature, allowing Apple ample opportunity to expand sales.
Fast forward to 2013; …Click Here to Continue To The Full Article…