Using Shiller To Project Market Returns


Summary

  • Future S&P returns not as enticing as past periods.
  • Examples using Shiller data to project earnings growth over a 5 and 10 year range.
  • Going forward a heavier weighting of dividend stocks could be a safer alternative to stocks with no dividend.

A few months back I wrote an article titled “A Unique Way To Use The Shiller PE As A Market Indicator“. To summarize the article for those that did not read it, although I’d suggest clicking the link above if you haven’t, were the following bullet points:

  • Shiller PE as an indicator is useful to specific time frames.
  • Using a single Shiller PE average or median over long periods is a poor indicator.
  • A rolling 25 year time frame yields useful results.

An updated graph through March is:
Continue To The Full Article; Click Here

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